The Curse of the Big QB Contract is Real—Can Purdy Break It?
Inevitable.
That’s the first word that comes to mind when I think about Brock Purdy’s new contract. From the moment the 49ers traded Trey Lance to the Cowboys before the 2023 season, it became obvious: San Francisco had made their choice. They were going to ride with Mr. Irrelevant—and eventually, they were going to have to pay him like a franchise quarterback.
That day has come.
Brock Purdy just signed a five-year, $260 million deal, making him the 8th highest-paid quarterback in the NFL on a per-year basis.
Here’s the current top 10 in average annual value:
Dak Prescott – $60M
Josh Allen – $55M
Joe Burrow – $55M
Trevor Lawrence – $55M
Jordan Love – $55M
Tua Tagovailoa – $53.1M
Jared Goff – $53M
Brock Purdy – $53M
Justin Herbert – $52.5M
Lamar Jackson – $52M
Looking at this list, one glaring truth jumps out:
The only quarterbacks here who’ve made a Super Bowl—all got there on rookie deals.
Burrow, Goff, Purdy. All three lost, but all three made it with roster flexibility made possible by cheap QB contracts. That's no coincidence. When one guy takes up 20% of the cap, good luck keeping the rest of the band together. Hope your QB can also play corner, linebacker, and left tackle.
Sure, Patrick Mahomes broke the mold. He’s not even in the Top 10 highest-paid quarterbacks anymore, but even when he was #1, the Chiefs still made the Super Bowl. Why? Because Mahomes is a walking, talking cheat code. He doesn’t need elite receivers, a top-tier line, or even a consistent run game. He is the system.
But for the rest of the league? That kind of roster math doesn’t work. Most teams need that financial breathing room to build around their QB.
I’ll say this, though—there are two other guys who might just be able to overcome it:
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. They’re rare talents. Dual-threat playmakers who can carry a team when the surrounding pieces aren’t perfect. If anyone outside of Mahomes can break the “big contract, no Super Bowl” curse, it’s those two.
Which brings us back to Purdy.
Can San Francisco win it all with Purdy now taking up a huge slice of the pie? Because the ripples are already showing. Deebo Samuel just got shipped to the Commanders—for a 5th rounder. Let’s not sugarcoat it: that was a salary cap sacrifice, plain and simple. A move made to make room for Purdy and Kittle’s extensions.
Yes, Purdy earned the deal. He’s played at a top-10 level, no question.
But that performance was, in part, because of guys like Deebo.
So now we have to ask—can Purdy still be that guy without Deebo?
Can he carry this team without everything around him being perfect?
We’ve seen this movie before.
After Russell Wilson’s second Super Bowl appearance, the Seahawks handed him a big-time extension. Add in the cost of the Legion of Boom and Marshawn Lynch, and something had to give. That something was the offensive line. Seattle’s offense was never quite the same.
Will San Francisco follow that same path? Will Purdy’s contract mark the beginning of a necessary—but painful—restructuring?
Let me know what you think in the comments. Is this the start of the next great 49ers era—or the beginning of their slow decline?