Week 3 was tough for a lot of bettors, and GREAT for fans of underdogs. Week 4 is upon us, which means it’s time for me to tell you what predictions I’m making, that will pay big if I’m right!
So far this season I’m 10-7 on my Sunday game predictions (I didn’t start until Week 2, and didn’t start predicting every game until Week 3).
As always, there is risk when you predict/bet on sporting events. Only risk what you’re willing to lose. I’m usually only putting $5-$10 in. And even then, I parlay a bunch of my predictions together so that my payout is big, but my losses are small (And I assume every dollar I predict is already gone. That way I’m not ever overspending, but still get the benefit of a little juice on the games).
Seattle Mike is not responsible for your losses. All odds are based on Novig.
Colts at Commanders (Commanders +3.5)
I hate predicting on overseas games. The travel plans, lack of home field advantage, and time change are ultimate equalizers. Having said that, if this game were played in a neutral indoor facility, with no crowd, I’d still think this game was pretty equal.
Commanders are starting Marcus Mariota for the second straight game, after Jayden Daniels missed last week with an elbow injury. Mariota played clean against a Seahawks defense that’s far superior to the squad he’ll be playing in Week 4. I don’t know if the Commanders win this game, but like so many of these overseas affairs, I see it coming down to a field goal. So taking Commanders +3.5 is the smart pick.
Jaguars at Bengals (Bengals -2.5)
The Jaguars have been one of the more dominant squads in the league. This game could easily be the prequel to a postseason rematch. Having said that, I have a hard time believing in Trevor Lawrence in big games. If this is a postseason preview, I think the Bengals win both, by more than a field goal.
Patriots at Bills (Bills Money Line)
The Patriots offensive struggles are glaring. But it’s hard to picture Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels rolling over to their division rivals. I’m expecting the Patriots are going to take the ball out of Drake Maye’s hands in Week 4 and rely on a strong running game and defense to force Josh Allen into costly mistakes.
I could see this being a hard fought 24-17 Bills Victory. Could just as easily be a 24-20 game, which is what makes the +6.5 spread tempting for Patriots bettors.
I prefer to just ride with the Bills winning this one, and take comfort in being right with anything but a Pats upset.
Jets at Bears (Jets +3.5)
The Bears will be starting Tyson Bagent, as Caleb Williams continues to recover from his pulled hamstring. Looking at the Jets 1-2 record, it’s easy to say Same old Jets. The problem is that the Jets have been in every game they’ve played this year. They won Week 1 comfortably. They lost a close overtime game against the Packers. And forced the Lions to play them to the end, where if it weren’t for a Geno Smith fumble, they might still be playing (Not really. OT can end in a tie in the regular season). Even if the Bears win this game, I don’t think it’s as dominant as their Week 3 performance against the Eagles. I like the Jets keeping this one close.
Cowboys at Texans (Cowboys +3.5)
Nico Collins clearly factors into the spread for this one. In Week 1, with Collins, the Texans offense put up 31 points in a thriller against the Bills. Without him, they’ve managed 6 points against the Bengals, and 17 against the Colts. Collins is set to return, which is a huge factor for the Texans.
At the same time, the Cowboys aren’t as bad as their 1-2 record reflects. If it weren’t for poor clock management at the end of the Ravens game in Brazil last week, the Cowboys might just be 2-1, instead of the embarrassing inverse they’re sitting at.
I’d expect this to be a relatively neutral site game, as plenty of Cowboys fans are taking the quick flight down to Houston and/or already live in the area.
I’m actually expecting the Cowboys to win this game comfortably, but will gladly take the 3.5 points of insurance.
Packers at Buccaneers (Packers -3.5)
This game couldn’t have come at a better time for the Packers. The Buccaneers will be starting Jalon Daniels, as Baker Mayfield recovers from a dislocated thumb. Matt LeFleur and the Packers could really use a get-right game after their embarrassing blowout loss to the Falcons on Thursday Night Football.
This could be the game that gets Todd Bowles fired. I think the Packers are winning big on the road. (Might get to enjoy some home field Boos going the other way this week).
Titans at Ravens (Titans +11.5)
No part of me thinks the Titans are winning this game. -11.5 is just too big of a spread for a Ravens team that lost to the Saints at home, and then narrowly escaped the Cowboys in Brazil.
Garbage time could be the saving grace for this prediction.
Rams at Eagles (Over 43.5)
This prediction is extremely injury based. The Rams will have Puca Nacua back, which will be a problem for defenses, seeing how Davonte Adams has been dominant without Nacua taking the pressure off of him for the last few weeks. Meanwhile, yes the Eagles will be missing their top receiver in DeVonta Adams, but the Rams defensive line could face some problems this week with Aaron Donald out, and Myles Garrett remaining on IR.
I think the Rams will drop bombs through the air all day. The Eagles will run up and down the field.
This game could easily be a high scoring affair.
Cardinals at Giants (Cardinals -2.5)
Since Jameis Winston took over for the injured Jaxson Dart, the Giants offense hasn’t scored a single touchdown. Jameis Winston only managed 118 passing yards in the brutal, three field-goal-win over the Titans in Week 3. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett is coming off of a 280 yard, 2 touchdown game against the 49ers.
The Cardinals are ahead of schedule in their rebuild under new management, and already playing competitive football.
The Cardinals could win this game comfortably.
Dolphins at Vikings (Dolphins +10.5)
The Vikings will be without Justin Jefferson, which will play an impact on Kyler Murray’s ability to push the ball downfield. The Vikings defense will still make things hard on the Dolphins, but I think this is another ugly battle for Minnesota. I think the Vikings win, but I wouldn’t be too surprised with a Dolphins upset…really wouldn’t be surprised with the Dolphins being within 10 when the game goes final.
Chiefs at Raiders (Chiefs -4.5)
Let’s not overthink this one. Yes, the Raiders have surprised us all, starting the season 3-0. Their wins have been over the Dolphins, Chargers, and a Saints team that couldn’t get out of their own way on offense.
The Chiefs roll over the Raiders in this one.
Broncos at 49ers (Broncos +2.5)
This is a logic prediction. The 49ers aren’t going undefeated in 2026. Their first loss has to come somewhere, and the Broncos, who always seem to find ways to win ugly, make the most sense in the first four games for the 49ers.
Chargers at Seahawks (Seahawks -7.5)
Here’s where I give my fandom disclaimer. As a Seahawks fan, I only back my Seahawks predictions with $1 on whatever I predict. I just want to cheer for the good guys to win at all costs. I don’t want to worry about what we do beyond that.
Having said that, I still don’t want to lose my dollar. The fact of the matter is that the Seahawks are coming off of an embarrassing loss. Sam Darnold will surely be looking to protect the ball, while still slinging it.
On the other side of the ball, the Chargers offense has been underwhelming, to put it mildly. The Mike Macdonald defense should have a huge day against the Mike McDaniel offense.
Lions at Panthers (Lions -3.5)
Bryce Young is the ultimate purgatory quarterback. He’ll do enough to convince Panthers fans that he can win, while never actually taking Carolina anywhere meaningful. Beyond the Carolina offense struggles, which I predict will be significant, they’ll be without their Cornerback 1 and Cornerback 2 (Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson).
This is going to be a dominant Panthers blowout.
There it is.
Every Sunday prediction that will hopefully improve my record from 10-7 to 24-7.
I’m most confident in:
Lions -3.5
Cowboys +3.5
Chiefs -4.5
Be sure to subscribe for my results on Monday.