Week 3 was rough for bettors on the favorites. There were lots of upsets, starting with Thursday Night Football when the Falcons shocked the world with their dominance over the Packers.
In Week 2 I went 3-0 on my bets, which naturally caused me to go all in on Week 3, predicting/betting on every Sunday game.
As always, you’re responsible for your own predictions/bets. Never risk what you’re not willing to lose. I’ve enjoyed adding a little juice to my football viewing in 2026, but the actual amount of money I put on the games is relatively small. Still, if you’ve predicted/bet with me this year, you’ve turned a profit.
Here’s the Week 3 predictions/bets, results, and explanations:
Jets vs Lions: Lions -6.5 (Won)
Jets 24, Lions 31 (Lions were favored by 6.5, O/U 48.5)
Early in the 4th when the Lions were up 24-10, I felt confident in the 7 point lead we’d need. When the Jets tied the game up with four minutes to go, I felt less confident. Luckily Jahmyr Gibbs and Jared Goff knew the assignment and they came through for us.
Titans vs Giants: Titans +2.5 (Lost)
Titans 7, Giants 12 (Giants were favored by 2.5, O/U 37.5)
How do the Titans go from nearly beating the Eagles in a relatively high scoring game, to just one touchdown against the Giants?
In retrospect, I was too high on the Titans after they nearly pulled off the victory against the Eagles, who appear to have some struggles of their own this year. I think we can finally declare Cam Ward a bust, and I likely don’t predict/bet on the Titans to win again until he’s gone.
Patriots vs Jaguars: Jaguars -2.5 (Won)
Patriots 6, Jaguars 35 (Jaguars were favored by 2.5, O/U 45.5)
My prediction: People are still giving the Patriots too much credit for their unlikely Super Bowl run last year. They haven’t shown anything in 2026 to indicate they’ll make it nearly as far. They beat a Steelers team that I think has a ceiling of 8 wins, and they lost to a Seahawks team that only put up 13 points with their backup quarterback. Meanwhile the Jaguars look like a legitimate playoff contender. Despite the spread, I don’t think this game is particularly close.
Nailed it.
Texans vs Colts: Over 42.5 (Lost)
Texans 17, Colts 19 (Texans were favored by 1.5, O/U 42.5)
My prediction was based on the fact that both defenses haven’t played well, and both offenses showed they can score at will. How was I supposed to know this was going to be the week that both Defensive Coordinators decided to actually prepare for a game?
Chiefs vs Dolphins: Chiefs -10.5 (Won)
Chiefs 24, Dolphins 10 (Chiefs were favored by 10.5, O/U 45.5)
The Chiefs kept me nervous through most of the game, but they ultimately came through with a dominant 14 point win.
Chargers vs Bills: Bills money line (Won)
Chargers 16, Bills 24 (Bills were favored by 7.5, O/U 50.5)
My prediction: I don’t like the 7.5 point spread. The Bills defense surrenders too many points to feel comfortable in all around dominance. At the same time, I don’t like the 50.5 O/U because the Chargers offense has scored just 14 points in each of their first two games. While I think the Bills win this game, and even trust them to put up 30 or more, it’s a coin flip whether the final is 31-17 or a 40-33 boat race.
The final wound up in the middle (Bills won 24-16). I’m going to say I was right in the sense that this game was impossible to predict. Nobody saw five Bills turnovers coming. Even if you did somehow, there’s no way you thought that would translate to just 16 points.
Bengals vs Steelers: Bengals -3.5 (Lost)
Bengals 27, Steelers 30 (Bengals were favored by 3.5, O/U 42.5)
I’ve got to own this one. I was dead wrong. My prediction was that the Steelers wouldn’t be able to do much against Cincinnati’s defense. They laid 30 points on them, en route to a 30-27 win. The only solace I can take is that if the Bengals would have won in regulation, the final score would have had to be 30-34, which would have proven the -3.5 spread.
Panthers vs Browns: Panthers -2.5 (Lost)
Panthers 18, Browns 21 (Panthers favored by 2.5, O/U 41.5)
Right when I think the Panthers might be good, Bryce Young proves why so many people view him as a bust. I don’t think he’s a bust. I think he’s worse. He’s a purgatory quarterback. He’s good enough that he can win a few games. Not nearly good enough to take Carolina anywhere meaningful.
At the same time, I might have to rethink the Browns. They might not be the complete pile of dog brown I thought they were.
Seahawks vs Commanders: Seahawks money line (Lost)
Seahawks 31, Commanders 33 (Seahawks were favored by 7.5, O/U: 40.5)
My prediction: 7.5 points on the road is too much to feel confident in. Marcus Mariota is one of the best backups in the league. He could easily be a starting quarterback on another team. Sam Darnold had a light workload this week, after not playing since the first series of the season opener. It might take him a while to shake off the rust. Seahawks still win, but the points are too hard to predict.
I wasn’t far off on my prediction. Sam took a while to shake the rust off. By the time he did, the comeback was nearly insurmountable, though the Seahawks did enough to keep it interesting.
Cardinals vs 49ers: 49ers money line (Won)
Cardinals 30, 49ers 36 (49ers were favored by 8.5, O/U 47.5)
My Prediction: This has nothing to do with the lack of ability of the Cardinals or the superiority of the 49ers. This is based on the likelihood that the 49ers crush their first three opponents to start the season. 8.5 point spread sounds about right. And it’s tempting. But I’d be conservative on this one.
The 49ers win had a final score of 36-30. So yeah, if you took the Cardinals +8.5, you’re feeling great! I stand by my prediction, anyways. If I would have taken the 49ers -8.5, I’d have lost. Being conservative was the right approach, given what we knew at the time.
Vikings vs Buccaneers: Buccaneers +1.5 (Lost)
Vikings 23, Buccaneers 16 (Buccaneers were favored by 1.5, O/U 42.5)
I really thought Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers would be out for blood after their embarrassing loss to the Browns. For what it’s worth, I did predict that the Buccaneers would only win upwards of 6 games this year. After their loss to the Browns, they were behind schedule. Now they’re REALLY behind schedule.
I still think Kyler Murray sucks, though.
Raiders vs Saints: Saints -3.5 (Lost)
Raiders 35, Saints 27 (Saints were favored by 3.5, O/U 43.5)
We don’t need to waste a lot of time on this one. There’s a reason the Saints were favored by 3.5. Not a lot of people saw the Raiders coming out this hot. In defense of my pick, one of the Saints turnovers was a fumble that was identical to the one that went in favor of the Lions in Week 1. The NFL doesn’t want to touch this topic, but I guess they’re saying Tyler Schough intended to fumble the ball?
Ravens vs Cowboys: Cowboys +3.5 (Won)
Ravens 34, Cowboys 31 (Ravens were favored by 3.5, O/U 52.5)
My prediction: In Dallas, I might take the Ravens in a straight win. The fact that this game is in Brazil plays a factor, and I give the edge to the more experienced Head Coach and organization. I think the Cowboys win this game, but even if they don’t, a field goal spread is pretty good insurance on what I think will be a tight game.
Boy did I hit the nail on the head in this one. The game played out almost exactly how I saw it going. I figured this one was going to come down to a last second field goal. I assumed that would mean a Cowboys kicker, not a Raven. But either way I’d be within the 3.5 for the underdog (And I was).
Rams vs Broncos: Broncos +2.5 (Won)
Rams 26, Broncos 30 (Rams were favored by 2.5, O/U 44.5)
For a game I figured the Broncos were winning, taking the 2.5 points felt like the smart thing to do. Not that this game didn’t have me sweating a few times - mostly because I knew I needed this win to breakeven. It may have taken a pick six and some questionable calls down the stretch, but we got the W, and that’s all that matters.
Looking Ahead…
After Week 3 of the NFL Season, I’m now 10-7 on my bets. I’m going to need to have a big bounce back week to come back from this hit to my record. For what it’s worth, on my NFL Picks I’m only one back from The Athletic’s top football podcast, and that’s with me missing one game (That I would have gotten if I would have submitted my pick on time).
I post my Thursday and Monday “predictions” (Some might call them bets) on Twitter/X @RealSeattleMike. All of my Sunday predictions will be in a Saturday post on the website. The same one you’re on right now…
-Written by Seattle Mike